Onshore hydrocarbon spending in Africa is expected to reach $22 billion in 2026, according to the African Energy Chamber’s (AEC) State of African Energy 2026 Outlook. Production is also expected to remain stable during the year, reflecting a cautious approach among operators as they manage assets and optimize production from mature fields. However, with ongoing exploration campaigns in Angola, Zimbabwe and Namibia, the continent’s onshore landscape could see a significant shift in the coming years.
Africa’s Onshore Production Landscape
The AEC Outlook shows that the balance between onshore and offshore production in Africa during the 2025-2026 period has swung towards onshore. While offshore projects are gaining traction, onshore fields remain a key contributor to the continent’s hydrocarbon supply, largely led by markets such as Algeria, Libya and Nigeria.
Over the next five years, total hydrocarbon production in Algeria is expected to remain steady, measuring 3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (bpd). However, the government has set ambitious targets, striving to reach 200 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually during the same timeframe. Of this, 100 bcm would be destined for exports. In 2026, the country is on track to produce 1 million bpd in oil and 10 bcm per day in gas, with ongoing projects expected to help stabilize production. These include the Tin Fouye Tabankort Sud and In Amenas II gas development, both of which are starting next year.
Libya has also set bold production targets. With 93% of the country’s oil and gas produced onshore, the country aims to reach 2 million bpd in the coming years and is deploying a multi-faceted strategy to achieve this. This includes the launch of a 22-block licensing round in 2025 – set to close in 2026 – which has already drawn over 40 prospective bidders. Up to 11 onshore blocks are available for exploration through the round. The government is also prioritizing brownfield redevelopment, targeting the Sarir, Mesla, Amal, Ghani, Defa, Waha and other fields, as well as the discovered but undeveloped greenfield projects. Another focus area is marginal fields, with the aim of increasing the reserve replacement ratio. This approach would see the country optimize existing assets while also pursuing new discoveries.
In West Africa, Nigeria remains one of the continent’s biggest producers. Onshore production increased steadily in 2024 owing to improved security measures and the rise of indigenous players. Looking ahead, the country has set a production target of 2.1 million bpd by the end of 2025 and 3 million bpd by 2030. This goal is supported by several developments, including TotalEnergies’ Ubeta onshore gas project and the Seplat and Renaissance-led ANOH development.
“The emergence of new onshore players signals a promising future for Africa’s onshore landscape. While the majority of IOC investments have shifted offshore, the rise of indigenous players will see onshore production remaining steady – if not increasing – in the coming years,” states NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the AEC.
Emerging Markets
Upcoming exploration campaigns across Africa could see an expansion of Africa’s onshore production portfolio. In recent years, Zimbabwe has emerged as one of Africa’s top frontier gas markets, with exploration led by Invictus Energy yielding positive results. The company is advancing the development of the Cabora Bassa Project in northern Zimbabwe following a string of discoveries made in 2023 and 2024. Invictus Energy is preparing to drill its next exploration well at the Musuma-1 site in H2, 2025, targeting up to 1.2 trillion cubic feet of gas.
Angola – already a major offshore producer – is making a return to onshore exploration. Following the conclusion of a 2023 bid round – which featured 12 onshore blocks – the country is preparing to drill the first pre-salt exploration well in the onshore Kwanza basin in nearly 40 years. Led by Corcel, the project targets hundreds of millions of barrels of potential resources. The company is currently acquiring a 326-km line 2D seismic data acquisition program, with plans to drill in 2026.
Namibia is also making a play for onshore developments, with exploration forays led by ReconAfrica. The company is advancing its drilling efforts in the Damara Fold Belt, with plans to drill multiple wells near the Naingopo prospect and Kavango West 1X. This campaign will be supported by a 3D seismic acquisition program, set to be carried out in H2, 2025.
“Several African countries – including Gabon, South Sudan, Angola, Mozambique, Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, Uganda and Equatorial Guinea – recognize the significant potential of onshore oil and gas exploration and production,” Ayuk notes, adding that this approach offers cost-effective exploration.
“It also generates well-paying jobs through infrastructure investments, provides African industrialists with a competitive edge through affordable energy and raw material costs, and secures revenue for governments,” he notes.
As the industry turns towards onshore opportunities, the upcoming African Energy Week: Invest in African Energies conference – taking place October 12-16 – will serve as a key platform to advance deals and partnerships. By uniting the entire energy sector and its value chain under one roof, the event fosters collaboration and dealmaking with a view to make energy poverty history.
“Africa can boost its oil and gas production through onshore exploration, utilizing modern technologies such as fracking without hesitation. This approach will improve economic conditions and enhance energy security,” he concludes.
Click here to download the African Energy Chamber’s State of African Energy 2026 Outlook.
