Just a decade ago, many had written off the Venezuelan oil industry and, by extension, Venezuela itself, determining that it was on the brink of an irreversible collapse. A more pessimistic view asserted that the country had already become a failed state,and it would just take some time for the rest of the world to see it for themselves.
On January 3, 2026, when U.S. Special Forces carried out strikes against military targets in northern Venezuela and a raidof the presidential compound in Caracas, culminating in the capture and extradition of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife to the US. Numerous analysts predicted the shocking and sudden upheaval would inevitably result in violent civil conflict and an even greater economic disaster for a country already battered by years of economic embargoes and chaos.
In retrospect, the fallout from Maduro’s arrest and removal proved much less severe than experts predicted, and Delcy Rodríguez’s transition from executive vice president to acting president in Maduro’s absence moved forward without muchturbulence.
A little less than two months later, together with my team from the African Energy Chamber (AEC), I was able to meet with President Rodríguez in Caracas. It is my great pleasure to report that we did not encounter an administration mired in uncertainty and instability but rather one demonstrating optimism and a clear sense of renewal.
Venezuela is in very good hands under President Rodríguez, who personally expressed to us her firm commitment to recovery through reforms and new partnerships.
Resurrecting a Powerhouse
Venezuela possesses the world’s largest proven oil reserves, estimated at approximately 303 billion barrels or roughly 17% of global totals, with a value equating to tens of trillions of dollars. From its most recent peak of roughly 3.5 billion barrels per day (bpd) in the late 1990s, Venezuelan oil production suffered a steep decline to 2.6 million bpd over the next few years when a 2002 strike at the national oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA) motivated then-President Hugo Chavez to replace nearly half the company’s workforce. While initially production remained steady at that lower rate under President Maduro, elected after Chavez’s death in 2013, the subsequent crash in global oil prices marked the start of further declines that saw production rates eventually hit new lows of only 300,000-400,000 bpd in 2020.
Production has since rebounded to about 1 million bpd as of early 2026.
With a continuation of the stability found under the Rodríguez administration, along with simplified regulations, Venezuela canattract the level of investment required to bolster productionrates even further. Though it would be a best-case scenario, with these elements in place, experts project that, within a decade, Venezuela could see the return of a 2.5 million bpd output and even the historical peaks of 3.5 million bpd achieved in the 1990s. But all signals indicate that President Rodríguez is earnestly committed to that very outcome.
In January, President Rodríguez (who held the additional role of Venezuela’s oil minister until March) overhauled the country’s Organic Hydrocarbons Law, deregulating the energy sector in a move that is expected to draw in USD1.4 billion in investments this year alone.
This reform bill, while it maintains state ownership of reservoirs, eases up on the terms that once mandated a majority stake and operational control for PDVSA in joint ventures. Through what the reforms describe as “production participation contracts” — effectively a production-sharing model — the bill also grants private firms more autonomy in exploration, production, and commercialization. Other attractive changes address royalty caps, taxation, and independent/foreign dispute resolution.
In a nutshell, President Rodríguez’s reforms slash at the bureaucracy that has been keeping Venezuela from realizing its true energy potential. She has cut red tape and rollout the red carpet to energy investors and Venezuela stands to win.
President Rodríguez has also proven herself as a reliable collaborator.
By maintaining Venezuela’s commitments to OPEC, especiallythrough the political upheaval of the past five months, President Rodríguez has done her part in supporting the stability of theglobal oil market while preserving her country’s beneficial ties to the other OPEC countries. Furthermore, the Rodríguez administration’s vision for Venezuela’s rebound extends beyond oil.
Venezuela’s natural gas reserves, estimated at roughly 200 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), rank the country’s holdings among the world’s largest, and President Rodríguez plans to develop these resources to their fullest.
While Venezuela’s Organic Hydrocarbons Law regulates gas associated with crude oil production, the separate Gaseous Hydrocarbons Law governs non-associated gas and offers even more flexibility on private ownership stakes and tradingactivities than regulations that apply to oil.
The Rodríguez administration intends to leverage these conditions to monetize offshore non-associated gas fields such as Dragon, Loran-Manatee, and Perla through partnerships with international majors like Shell, BP, Eni, and Repsol. Plans are also in place to ramp up pipeline exports to Trinidad and Tobago and to capture gas at sites where it is currently being flared to both reduce waste and supply domestic power generation.
With the rise of AI data centers increasing the demand for electricity production the world over, these strategies should attract a great deal of foreign investment to Venezuela and generate revenue at a quicker pace than many large-scale oilprojects, all while improving the reliability of the national grid and positioning the country as a significant contributor to global supply.
What This Means for Africa
For decades, Venezuela has demonstrated a willingness to ally with African oil-producing nations. With one of the highest proportions of African ancestry among the Spanish-speaking countries of Latin America, there is a deep admiration for Africa in Venezuela, and the nation has been consistent in its support for the rights of African producers to drill in their own territories in the battle against energy poverty. Even years before the foundation of OPEC, it was Venezuelan representatives who expressed a desire to coordinate with Africa’s sovereign, developing oil producers to collaborate on global petroleum policies. When the organization officially formed in 1960, Libya was the first African nation invited into the fold only two years later. Both the Chávez and Maduro administrations even went so far as to establish numerous state-sponsored promotions of the Afro-Venezuelan identity including the creation of a Vice Ministry for African Relations and additional Venezuelan embassies throughout Africa. Venezuela was also among the first countries to indicate interest in supporting or hosting concepts related to the Africa Energy Bank, underscoring its commitment to African energy sovereignty.
This same welcoming disposition is alive and well in Venezuela today, as our recent AEC trip to the nation’s capital confirmed.
During our delegation’s visit, we engaged directly with PDVSA leadership, energy ministers, and President Rodríguez herself. The warmth of their reception and the clarity of their vision left a lasting impression.
The Venezuelan officials we met with emphasized an openness to African participation across all facets of production, and President Rodríguez has been fully open to African investments in and beyond oil. She was eager to formalize cooperation, which would include dedicated programs to train African professionals at Venezuela’s renowned Universidad Venezolana de los Hidrocarburos (UVH), which has now opened itself specifically to such initiatives.
In the end, we signed a landmark memorandum of understanding, committing both Venezuela and the AEC to working towards increased investment, trade, technology exchange, and human capital development among numerous other items.
This potential trading partnership, especially regarding natural gas, holds profound significance for Africa, where approximately 600 million people lack access to electricity, and nearly 1 billion still rely on dangerous traditional biomass for cooking.
These inequities wreak havoc on human health and hold back development. Reliable energy from fossil fuels has proven time and again to be the most reliable bridge to modern energy accessand human flourishing, and I was pleased to learn that President Rodríguez shares my passion for eradicating this deficit.
With over a century of experience in the oil and gas industry, Venezuela complements Africa as a whole. Our deep bench of producers, entrepreneurs, and international partners can work seamlessly with Venezuelan counterparts to scale up output and reduce energy poverty on both continents. It was refreshing to engage with leadership that shares this vision, and the AEC is excited to make Venezuela a key focus of our 2026 and 2027 initiatives.
African producers should seriously consider Venezuela as a strategic investment destination. The country offers world-class technical expertise, a skilled workforce, and vast proven reserves. With improving conditions in the energy sector and a government open to partnerships, Venezuela representssignificant long-term potential for mutually beneficial cooperation. Strategic investments now could position African players as key partners in the country’s energy future while delivering attractive returns.
The Way Back
The approach to making Venezuela the best country for energy investments that President Rodríguez has taken since stepping into her current role is already working. In recognition of her hydrocarbons law reforms, the U.S. lifted fiscal and travel sanctions that were in place on both her and PDVSA, allowing transactions between U.S. companies and Venezuelan banks to recommence.
Other players in the global community have demonstrated confidence in Venezuela’s recovery as well. The return of major airlines like Qatar Airways, American Airlines, TAP Air Portugal, and Turkish Airlines coincided with President Rodríguez’s meetings with reportedly over 120 other multinational corporations.
This renewed confidence is perhaps most clearly visible in the energy sector, where major international oil companies have moved quickly to re-enter the Venezuelan market. Since President Rodríguez took office, Eni has signed a major agreement to relaunch the giant Junín-5 heavy oil project in the Orinoco Belt, Shell has secured deals to develop the Dragon offshore gas field and is in negotiations to develop the Carito and Pirital onshore fields, and Hunt Oil has finalized multi-billion dollar agreements to explore and produce heavy crude in the Monagas, Anzoátegui, and Barinas regions. These developments build directly on the hydrocarbons law reforms and the lifting of sanctions, signaling a return of strong international trust in Venezuela’s energy future.
Outside the administration, the everyday Venezuelans we engaged with during our stay in their country all shared a resilience, an ambition, and a commitment to rebuilding their economy. President Rodríguez is a perfect reflection of these people, and we are confident she will serve them well.
If there is one lesson we have learned since founding the AEC, it is that political stability and clear and favorable regulations create an enabling environment for the energy sector to operate at its maximum potential. With President Rodríguez at the helm, Venezuela has repositioned itself in accordance with this principle. We look forward to working with this administration as it steers the country away from becoming a cautionary tale and towards its future as an example of progress.
