Africa’s energy transition must be driven by expanding access to affordable and reliable energy rather than restricting consumption, a message the African Energy Chamber (AEC) is bringing to COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye. With approximately 565 million people still without electricity and primary energy demand projected to increase by 92% by 2060, the AEC is urging policymakers to prioritize infrastructure investment and an integrated energy strategy that allows hydrocarbons and renewables to develop alongside one another, reflecting the continent’s development priorities rather than regulatory frameworks designed for mature, energy-intensive economies.
The AEC’s State of African Energy Outlook 2027, produced in collaboration with S&P Global Energy, highlights the disparity between Africa’s population, energy consumption and emissions. The continent accounts for approximately 19% of the global population but generates only around 5% of global energy-related emissions. Per capita primary energy consumption also remains a fraction of the global average, reflecting persistent infrastructure gaps that constrain industrial development, economic productivity and household welfare.
Africa’s Energy Transition Requires Addition, Not Substitution
The Outlook identifies energy addition, rather than fuel substitution, as the central principle underpinning Africa’s energy future. While developed economies can replace existing fossil fuel infrastructure with renewable alternatives, African countries must first establish the generation capacity, transmission networks and industrial infrastructure required to meet rapidly growing demand.
Meeting a projected 92% increase in primary energy demand by 2060 will require simultaneous investment in oil, natural gas, solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal and nuclear energy. Restricting investment in any part of this mix risks slowing electrification and limiting the energy supply needed to support industrialization.
Oil and gas will remain important components of this strategy. The Outlook projects approximately $40 billion in annual upstream investment, with continental hydrocarbon production expected to increase from 11 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2027 to 12.5 million by 2030. Beyond supplying domestic and international markets, petroleum revenues can provide governments with the fiscal resources to develop electricity networks, roads, ports and essential public infrastructure.
Natural gas also has a critical role in strengthening electricity systems. Dispatchable gas-fired generation can complement intermittent solar and wind capacity, stabilize national grids and supply industrial heat for sectors such as cement, steel and fertilizer production. Meanwhile, renewable energy, battery storage and distributed generation will expand electricity access, particularly in underserved rural communities.
COP31 Puts Africa’s Energy Sovereignty in Focus
COP31 provides an important platform for African governments to challenge international policies that risk adding costs and administrative barriers to already capital-constrained energy markets. The AEC has repeatedly emphasized that climate objectives must account for differing levels of development and historical emissions, rather than impose uniform restrictions on countries with vastly different energy needs.
European regulatory frameworks, including the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, illustrate the growing influence of external compliance requirements on international investment. Although intended to strengthen corporate accountability, complex due diligence obligations can increase operating costs, create uncertainty for investors and complicate project development across African markets. For projects already facing financing and infrastructure constraints, additional compliance burdens risk delaying investment and the delivery of much-needed energy supplies.
Africa receives only a fraction of the capital required to develop its energy infrastructure, while restrictions on upstream financing threaten to narrow the pool of available investment. Strengthening African financing institutions, including the African Energy Bank established through cooperation between the African Petroleum Producers’ Organization and Afreximbank, will be important in mobilizing capital for projects across the energy value chain.
Ultimately, a just energy transition must deliver measurable improvements in electricity access, industrial capacity and economic opportunity. With demand expected to rise sharply over the coming decades, Africa needs investment across its entire energy system, not policies that constrain the development of resources required to power its future.
The State of African Energy 2027 Outlook, by the African Energy Chamber in collaboration with S&P Global Energy and powered by S&P Global Energy Data.
