Johannesburg – The African Energy Chamber is pleased to announce its collaboration with S&P Global for a joint webinar, providing a comprehensive insight into the African Energy Outlook 2024.
The webinar aims to shed light on the challenges and opportunities that Africa faces as a key energy exporter and consumer in a year marked by global and regional geopolitical tensions, increasing competition for energy security, and a rapid transition to cleaner fuels. Listen to industry leaders such as NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber, Michael Wynne, Vice President, Upstream Solutions, S&P Global Commodity Insights, Verner Ayukegba, Senior Vice President, African Energy Chamber, Daniel Evans, Vice President, Global Head, Fuels and Refining, S&P Global Commodity Insights as they share their wealth of knowledge on the energy sector.
In 2024, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is poised for growth, with lower interest rates, policy reforms, and significant investment projects contributing to the region’s enhanced growth prospects.
South Africa and Nigeria, as the two largest economies in SSA, are expected to play pivotal roles in driving real GDP growth, which is projected to increase to 3.9% from 3.1% in 2023. Governments across the region continue to pursue climate finance to advance green energy availability. However, fluctuating exchange rates and various economic factors pose risks to the region’s inflation outlook.
The evolving dynamics of sweet and sour crudes worldwide will influence the appetite for African crudes. Key buyers remain in Europe and Asia, and the stability of Russian crude destinations has tempered impacts on price differentials across these regions. OPEC+ policies and U.S. production changes are expected to be central animating forces in global crude market dynamics, influencing the market for Brent-linked crudes, including most African grades.
Shifting European energy security demands, geopolitical instability, and COP28’s signals towards a non-abated fossil fuel phase-down underscore the importance of developing Africa’s gas resources. African governments are actively improving exploration and production terms to attract investment while navigating geopolitical risks in 2024.
The aftermath of the 2014-15 oil price crash and the ongoing energy transition have intensified pressures on exploration budgets. Offshore non-final investment decisions (NFWs) are on the rise, but the discovered resource for 2023 marked a decade-low. Production levels, though similar to 2023, remain significantly below 2019 levels. Capital investment in Africa decreased between 2015 and 2020, impacting current production, but upcoming projects are expected to contribute to production increases into 2030.
The value of Africa’s upstream oil and gas deals in 2023 experienced a substantial decline, primarily driven by regionally focused acquisitions. Asian and Middle Eastern national oil companies (NOCs) are becoming more assertive in the region, and GIOCs remain crucial for large-scale funding. African financial institutions, including Afreximbank and the upcoming African Energy Bank, are increasingly focusing on financing upstream projects across the continent.
Sub-Saharan Africa faces a pressing need to improve fuel supply resilience, with product demand outpacing regional supply. Despite global trends in EVs and fuel cells, Africa’s transportation system is expected to remain oil-fueled. Limited investment in new refining capacity, apart from the Dangote refinery in Nigeria, emphasizes the growing need for coordinated investment in regional infrastructure to handle increasing product flows.
In 2024, power demand is expected to resume higher growth levels, aligning with a more positive economic outlook for the region. While there is an increased commitment to clean energy, Sub-Saharan Africa continues to grapple with the world’s worst records for electricity access and per capita power consumption. The region’s outlook for coal-fired generation is set to change, and renewables, especially hydropower, play a vital role in delivering competitively priced cross-border power supply.
The joint webinar with S&P Global will provide stakeholders with invaluable insights into navigating the complex landscape of Africa’s energy sector in 2024, fostering collaboration and progress amid uncertainties.
Register here
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